🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

But the latest field is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending collectively. Under an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still