Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
